NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLING, LATEST – AT 10:58 A.M.  ET:  Latest polls show that Donald Trump on the GOP side, and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side, have maintained their frontrunner positions.

RealClearPolitics reports that Trump's lead is anywhere from 14 to 22 points, depending on the poll taken.  Rubio is in second place in these polls, but there is no sign of a last-minute surge for him.  A mixed debate performance last night did not help his cause.

For the Dems, Bernie Sanders's lead is anywhere from 11 to 23 points.  Clinton is in the 35 to 42 range.  This is not entirely shocking.  Bernie is from nearby Vermont, and the TV markets overlap.  He's known in New Hampshire.  He has played down his socialist identity. 

The key state after New Hampshire will be South Carolina.  There Hillary will make her stand, in a state with large numbers of minority voters.  They are a major part of her base.  If she wins there, she's back on track.  If she's hurt there, someone will rush to the vice president's mansion in Washington, wake up Joe Biden, and tell him there's an election.

On the GOP side, the question is whether Trump's anticipated victory will mean much.  Will he play well in the South?  Can one of his challengers, particularly Rubio, break through to become the challenger to Trump?  Absolutely fascinating election year.

February 7,  2016